Manchuria/Current events/Dongbei Jintian
The following is a summary of news from Manchuria as provided by the Dongbei Jintian (Chinese: ) from December 2015. 2015 December *22nd: Source 2015 election - shock result as the Manchu Revolutionary National Congress loses majority '' by Fu Bingbing The results for the 2015 election for the Supreme National Assembly have been announced by the Electoral Orgburo, with the result being that no party commands an overall majority in the Assembly. The biggest losers of the election were the Manzuxiehui who went from a comfortable majority of 388 seats to that of 285, whereas the populist Progressive Alliance for Manchuria (led by the New Progressive Party) went from 115 seats to 233. Smaller parties (such as the Manchu Communist Party, Qinglonghui and United People’s Party) also lost seats whilst the Socialist Party received a small boost in terms of votes. The election has seen the worst result for a majority voting bloc since the 1995 elections when the Manzuxiehui ousted the Minzudang, whereas the NPP have attained the largest number of seats an opposition party has ever received beating the Socialists 211 seats in 1995. Manzuxiehui party chairman Hu Zhengming has stated that the Manzuxiehui will “push to form a coalition as soon as possible” highlighting the fact that the Manzuxiehui still retains a plurality of seats. He has also stated that any coalition with the Manzuxiehui will provide the “''best governance for Manchuria''”. NPP leader Feng Huiyin has stated that the election shows “''a clear desire by the Manchurian people to change the stagnant, corrupt politics that has plagued the nation for decades''”. She has stated that the Progressive Alliance is committed to “''negotiating a coalition that will bring real change to Manchuria''”. The results are as follows - *23rd: Source ''2015 election - coalition talks begin by Huo Shixiong The elections is Manchuria have yielded an unprecedented result - that of a non-majority voting bloc. Since 2002 the Manzuxiehui has dominated the legislature and the premierial office, holding comfortable majorities. Yet a series of corruption scandals, economic contraction, and harsh austerity measures means that the Manzuxiehui has lost support to the anti-establishment and populist New Progressive Party. Such a trend of course can be seen across the world - its no surprise that the NPP's boost in support came at the same time similar anti-establishment forces in Europe made gains this year. And yet indecisive results mean now that a coalition must be formed before the Premier can officially open the new Assembly for its first meeting in January 2016. The Manzuxiehui currently hold the most seats within the Assembly at 285 - 58 short of a majority. Manzuxiehui officials before the election were well aware that they would not be able to form a majority, and as such reached out to find possible coalition partners from opposition parties. The party the Manzuxiehui are moat ideologically similar to - the conservative Qinglonghui - indicated that they were willing to cooperate with the Manzuxiehui, and as such the Manzuxiehui did not run candidates in the districts of Hulin City and Raohe County which subsequently passed into the Qinglonghui's hands. However, the election night proved to be disappointing for the Qinglonghui who lost 3 of their 26 seats. If the Manzuxiehui indeed did form a coalition with the Qinglonghui it would be 14 seats short of a majority. Potentially a deal with the centrist United People's Party would bring this up to 349 (a 6 seat majority) but its unlikely that the nationalist Qinglonghui would agree to a coalition including the Korean-focused UPP. The Progressive Alliance are in a weaker position to create a coalition. With only 233 seats they would need 110 members of opposition parties to agree to form a coalition. UPP chairman Ri Ki-nam has already stated that his party would support any NPP-led coalition provided it did not include the Qinglonghui, but this would simply meant the Progressive Alliance would need another 90 seats to form a coalition. The Qinglonghui have already ruled out the possibility of participating in any NPP-led coalition and it is unlikely the far left Manchu Communist Party would find much in common with the liberal Progressive Alliance. The possibility of a "Grand Coalition" between the Manzuxiehui and NPP, according to political scientist Shen Liangping of the Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, is "not to be dismissed out of hand". Ideologically both the Manzuxiehui and the NPP are largely centrist and pragmatic, with their being some common ground in regard to economics especially "which is key to any coalition" Shen points out. However, many in the Progressive Alliance would oppose a coalition which would go against the NPP's promise to "change the stagnant, corrupt politics" of Manchuria. Chang Shengzuo - possible kingmaker? Perhaps crucial to any coalition would be the participation of the Socialist Party. In the last elections the SPM were ousted from the role of main opposition party by the NPP winning 99 seats, down from 198. However, following First Secretary's Chang Shengzuo's modernisation of the party which has seen it move away from more hardline leftist polices to social democracy (similar to many European socialist parties) it has regained some of its support, increasing its share of the vote and the amount of seats it holds to 103. The SPM has so far made no indications of whether it wishes to enter a coalition with the NPP or the Manzuxiehui. If the SPM entered a coalition with the Manzuxiehui it would give them 388 seats, equal to that the Manzuxiehui possessed before the election. Such a coalition would most likely be a political victory for Manzuxiehui chairman Hu Zhengming and Premier Liu Zhou, both of whom are positioned on the left of the Manzuxiehui and thus would strengthen their positions. However, its possible that many on the right of the Manzuxiehui would oppose such a coalition. Alternatively if the Progressive Alliance and the UPP form a coalition with the SPM they would be rewarded with a majority of 13. However, such a coalition could be unstable as hardline members of the SPM may be opposed to some of the more right wing economic positions of the Progressive Alliance and facilitate a split between the SPM's moderates and hardliners. As well as that the Progressive Alliance may not want to be seen in a coalition with the formerly communist SPM who are to some NPP supporters still a symbol of repression, and have also been implicated in corruption scandals alongside the Manzuxiehui. Whatever the case negotiations will likely be long and arduous. If no party can form a coalition then the Manzuxiehui may attempt to govern as a minority administration (as the Minzudang did after the 1995 election), or Premier LI will call for new elections. Nevertheless the result remains clear - Manchurians want to change the political establishment and the election will pave the way towards that goal. *26th: Source Premier urges for coalition to be formed by Huo Shixiong Premier Liu Zhou has called for parties to form a coalition in the wake of inconclusive elections last Tuesday in which the ruling Manzuxiehui lost its majority in the Supreme National Assembly. Liu has stated that if parties do not form a coalition quickly Manchuria is in danger of "entering a long period of political instability, financial uncertainly and social chaos", and that for the sake of stability parties must reach a consensus. The election results and the fallout that accompany them mirror that of Spain's following their election in which no party received a majority to rule. Spanish stocks have since faced a fall as investors baulk at the post-election chaos and the possibility of a socialist government that includes the far-left Podemos. The Executive Yuan is keen to promote its pro-business policies and to retain the shaky economic foundations that have been constructed since the economy contracted in December 2014. Liu has indicated that if a coalition is not reached she will dissolve the Assembly again and call for new elections - a reminder to her party to accept any conditions for a coalitions if only to prevent the Manzuxiehui from losing more seats in another election. Last Tuesday's elections resulted in the second "hung parliament" in Manchurian history with no party attaining a majority from within the legislature. The Manzuxiehui lost their majority of 388 being reduced to 285 seats whilst the Progressive Alliance (led by the New Progressive Party) won 233 seats in the best result of any opposition party in a Manchurian election. The Manzuxiehui hoped to form a coalition with the nationalist Qinglonghui , but were unprepared for not only their loss of support but the voters drastic rejection of the current Manzuxiehui government. The Progressive Alliance however has also faced difficulties expanding their coalition of themselves and the Korean United People's Party. As such, the Manzuxiehui have been keen to enter a "Grand Coalition" of the Manzuxiehui and the Progressive Alliance, with the two parties being ideologically similar in terms of economic and foreign policy. However, the Progressive Alliance has been cautious to enter a coalition with the Manzuxiehui as they feel it would undermine their electoral promises of reforming Manchurian politics and removing the corruption prevalent within the system. The talks today indicate that the Progressive Alliance has rejected any proposals of a grand coalition. Both parties have also been seen trying to court the Socialist Party (led by Chang Shengzuo) who would provide them with an electoral majority. Chang met with Manzuxiehui leader Hu Zhengming where coalition discussions have also been held, with Chang expected to meet with NPP leader Feng Huiyin later this week. It is likely that Chang will form a coalition with the NPP unless the Manzuxiehui's rightist faction are wiling to compromise with their economic policies, something the more leftist Liu Zhou is encouraging her party to do. *30th: Source Chang Shengzuo - Manzuxiehui will "have to compromise" by Chen Zhaoxu The First Secretary of the Socialist Party of Manchuria, Chang Shengzou, has indicated that he will not enter a coalition with the Manzuxiehui unless they "radically change their proposals for Manchuria". This follows a week of negotiations with the Manzuxiehui and the SPM who have sought to form a coalition within the Supreme National Assembly which officially opens on the 7th January to elect a new chairman. In a press statement released on the SPM's website Chang criticised the Manzuxiehui, stating they would only enter an alliance with the Manzuxiehui if they repudiated the government austerity measures which were described by the SPM in the election as the "most brutal outside of the Eurozone. Chang has also indicated that the Manzuxiehui must compromise on its defence and foreign policy, which he accused of being "subservient to the United States" and "would threaten Manchurian sovereignty" due to the factions of the Manzuxiehui supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He has said that the Manzuxiehui would "have to compromise" before a coalition can be formed. Analysis - Major blow to the Manzuxiehui Changs harsh words towards the Manzuxiehui - especially concerning economic policy - indicates that the SPM are slowly edging towards an alliance with the Progressive Alliance, a move that alarms both the Manzuxiehui and the right wing of the Progressive Alliance. For the Manzuxiehui it would deny them control of the Assembly, something senior NPP figures have pushed for adamantly since the election. For the right and progressive wings of the Progressive Alliance it would entail a coalition with their former idealogical enemies, considered an unacceptable proposal. Certainly leftist members of the Manzuxiehui such as Hu Zhengming have advocated for the lessening of the austerity program spearheaded by former Premier Jin Pai Nai and continued by his leftist successor Liu Zhou - a coalition with the socialists would strengthen the leftists position within the Manzuxiehui. Liu Zhou's recent comments urging the parties to cooperate has indicated that she would prefer a Manzuxiehui-Socialist coalition over a Progressive-Socialist coalition. Nevertheless, Chang's comment may have had the unintended side effect of deflecting the role of election kingmaker from himself to NPP Chairman Feng Huiyin. With a Manzuxiehui-Socialist coalition now looking unlikely the Manzuxiehui may try and form a "grand coalition" with the Progressive Alliance, meaning that the Progressive Alliance will have to choose to either align itself with the Manzuxiehui or the SPM, with neither proposal being seen as desirable by certain factions within the Progressive Alliance. 2016 January *5th Harbin International Ice and Snow Festival kicks off" by Chen Zhaoxu The 32nd International Ice and Snow Festival has been opened in the capital of Harbin, and is set to run for a a month. The largest of its kind in the world, the Festival's theme this year is the "Pearl on the Crown of Ice and Snow." This years festival is set to be the biggest ever with the display field being the equivalent of 112 football pitches. 330,000 cubic metres of ice are being used with a team of designers from around the world constructing the park over three months with hep from 10,000 workers. Organisers have promised this will be the most experimental show yet. Harbin festival.jpg Harbin festival 4.jpg Harbin festival 2.jpg Harbin festival 5.jpg Harbin festival 3.jpg Harbin festival 6.jpg *8th: Source Manzuxiehui official - coalition with the NPP will cause "split" by Liu Liansheng A coalition between the Manzuxiehui and the Progressive Alliance would cause a "split" and "will be unlikely to be accepted by the core members of the congress" according to Manzuxiehui Assembly member and former party disciplinary chief Zhang Zhenhong. This follows weeks of negotiations between the major political parties to create a majority coalition in the Supreme National Assembly following inconclusive elections held in December 2015. A majority voting bloc is required to select the Chairman of the Assembly, a post currently held by Manzuxiehui party chairman Hu Zhengming. Zhang's comments coincide with growing unrest being felt by Manzuxiehui rightist backbenchers, who feel that the negotiations with the Progressive Alliance and the Socialist Party has resulted in both demanding the Manzuxiehui (the largest party in the Assembly) to make too many concessions. Zhang, an outspoken rightist within the Manzuxiehui has dismissed both the Progressive Alliance and the Socialist Party as "leftist forces of agitation" whose policies were "discredited both in 1989 and 2008" and that to form an alliance with either party would be "political suicide". Zhang has indicated that he alongside other members of the right wing of the Manzuxiehui will not put up with a coalition with either party. In 2008 several progressive members of the Manzuxiehui led by former premierial aide Raoguo Jixu defected to create NPP who have subsequently become the second largest party in Manchuria. Since then the Old Left and Rightists within the Manzuxiehui have vied for power, with the current Premier and Party Chairman being members of the more liberal faction of the party. Its possible that the Manzuxiehui could split if Zhang alongside other more hardline rightists within the party defected or blocked coalition proposals - however doing so would guarantee a Progressive-Socialist coalition, something that is feared by the party establishment led by Premier Liu Zhou. With the Assembly negotiations being unclear at this moment, it is impossible whether to say if the Manzuxiehui will split - however both Premier Liu and Party Chairman Hu will need to be careful lest the party devolve into infighting. *17th Grand Coalition of the Manzuxiehui and the NPP formed by Fu Bingbing After weeks of inconclusive negotiations, the Manzuxiehui, Progressive Alliance and United People's Party have agreed to form a grand coalition in the Supreme National Assembly, expected to open for its next session on the 22nd February. The coalition is based around an agreement between the parties (named by policy makers as the Three Party Protocol) that promises amongst other things a full scale investigation into the government over alleged corruption. The Three Party Protocol includes - **Legislation giving citizens to recall district Assembly voters in by-elections will be passed. **A change in the term limit on the office of Premier from two six year terms to one nine year term. **A promise to support the government's austerity and privatisation programme. **A full scale investigation into government corruption and embezzlement will be carried out. **A review on education will be carried out. **A referendum on whether the two-child policy should be retained or not. **More workplace protections of women will be implemented. **Plans for a flat tax to be implemented will be pursued. **Decentralisation to local authorities will be carried out. *18th Analysis - what a Manzuxiehui-NPP coalition means by Fu Bingbing In light of the most historic election since 2000, the conservative Manzuxiehui has agreed to form a coalition with the liberal Progressive Alliance. This constitutes the most dramatic shift in Manchurian politics since the Manzuxiehui first held power in 2000 with that party having formed a majority government prior to 2015. As such, this will be the first instance in the Third Manchu Republic since 1995 where the government has been forced to work with the opposition. The so-called Three Party Protocol has outlined nine main proposals which the three coalition parties (the Manzuxiehui, Progressive Alliance and UPP) have promised to implement in the next five years with approval from the government. These include the ability to recall Assembly members, support for privatisation and austerity, an investigation into government corruption, an education review, decentralisation, flat tax implementation, two-child policy referendum, workplace protections for women, and revised premerial term limits. :Recalling district members This policy will likely be put on the back burner until the end of this Assembly's term. The district voting system disproportionally favour's the Manzuxiehui and Progressive Alliance - despite getting 33.4% and 27.4% of the vote respectively the Manzuxiehui and the Progressive Alliance gained 41.6% and 34% of seats, mainly due to them netting the majority of district seats. Compare that to the Socialist Party, which lost a record umber of district seats but gained in votes enabling them to retain all their seats albeit on the PR list. The ability to recall district Assembly members may weaken the Manzuxiehui or the Progressive Alliance as a result - the Progressive Alliance likely never expected to make such gains in the districts, and in hindsight are probably regretting this campaign promise. As such be ready for this proposal to be stalled and delayed as long as possible. :Supporting the government's economic plan The Manzuxiehui and the Progressive Alliance differ hugely on social and foreign policy, but in terms of economics a coalition between the two makes sense. It was likely the hardline anti-austerity rhetoric of Chang Shengzuo caused the Manzuxiehui to enter a coalition with the Progressive Alliance whose economic policies closely mirror the Manzuxiehui's, and it's likely this factor will be key to holding the coalition together. Both the MRNC and the Progressive Alliance have their fair share of economic liberals and statists, meaning that the government's programme of austerity and privatisation will face equal support (and opposition) from the Manzuxiehui and Progressive Alliance. :Implementation of a flat tax The proposal for a flat tax has proven to be controversial for much of the Manchu population (latest polls indicate only 41% of Manchurians support such a proposal) as well as for the Democratic Union for Change, United People's Party and Green Party (all members of the Three Party Protocol) who have opposed the plans for a flat tax. Nevertheless the main two parties in the Three Party Protocol - the Manzuxiehui and the NPP - have called for a flat tax of a rate of between 12-33%. This policy will easily pass through the Assembly - however its timing will be crucial, as if implemented poorly it may result in a public backlash, possibly from the young people that propelled the NPP into power. :Two-Child Policy referendum One of the most contentious issues amongst the coalition and the population as a whole is whether to retain the two-child policy. Introduced by the communist government in the 1980's the two-child policy has come under increasing criticism since the Orchid Revolution and especially after China announced it would end its one-child policy last year. Currently only the Manzuxiehui and the Socialist Party support the Two-Child Policy with the Progressive Alliance, UPP, Qinglonghui and SDP calling for its repeal. As such, a referendum effectively removes the contentious issue from being directly addressed by the coalition - by handing the decision over to the people splits over the issue can hopefully be avoided for the most part. If the referendum was held tomorrow it may be likely that it will be retained, but the longer the referendum is stalled the greater chance that public opinion will shift the other way. As such its probable that the Manzuxiehui will try to get a speedy referendum whilst the Progressive Alliance and the UPP will campaign for the opposite. :Education review This is another extremely contentious issue, but unlike the two-child policy it cannot be put to a referendum. According to the Progressive Alliance and the UPP the Manzuxiehui has been disproportionally targeting the education budget in their austerity cuts as well as whitewashing parts of Manchurian history, such as ignoring the Great Exchange and the alleged ethnic cleansing of Han and Korean people under Zhao Guanping. The Progressive Alliance hope that a review of education will address these issues and hopefully put pressure on the government to respond to these issues as soon as possible. The Manzuxiehui deny these claims, and instead hope to use the education review to help implement their school voucher system which is heavily opposed by the Progressive Alliance. How and when this education review will be carried out will effect the state of education in Manchuria, and differing aims may result in deadlock. :Workplace protections for women Manchuria is known internationally for having uneven women's workplace rights. Currently private employers are not required to pay the same wage to women as they are to men for equal work (state employers are required to do this however), there is no paternity leave under any circumstances and mandatory breaks for nursing mothers are not required. Whilst sexual harassment is banned in the workplace enforcement is not particularly strong. The Manzuxiehui have largely defended these policies and have consistently blocked efforts to reform them - however the Progressive Alliance have wholeheartedly committed to improving women's rights. By far the proposal that has the most support is for equal pay for equal work, which is not only supported by the Progressive Alliance but by the UPP, SDP and Socialist Party as well, meaning that even with Manzuxiehui opposition it will pass through the Assembly. The other proposals elicit less support apart from sexual harassment, meaning that its likely that they will be put on the backburner until they gain more bipartisan support. :Decentralisation to local governments Proposed by the Progressive Alliance, decentralisation to local authorities has long been an issue that has been taken with caution. Supporters contend that it will help relieve the problems of regionalism and possibly see more direct forms of democracy exercised. However, whilst not facing substantial resistance from the Manzuxiehui, government bureaucrats will be loathe to give up their power and may try to water down these decentralisation proposals. The coalition will have to skirt around these bureaucrats if these proposals are to be fully and successfully implemented. :New premierial term limits A possibly controversial proposal made by the coalition is to change the Premier's term limits from two six year terms to one nine year term. This proposal is supported by the Progressive Alliance, UPP and the Elitist faction within the Manzuxiehui - however the Old Left within the Manzuxiehui who support the Premier Liu Zhou oppose the policy as does Premier Liu. Liu will probably use the premerial veto to block the proposal up until 2020 when she is up for re-election, but by then elections for a new Assembly will also be taking place. This would be invalidated if 2/3 of the Assembly voted in favour of the proposal, but opposition from Premier Liu's allies may scupper this chance. As such whilst its probable that the proposal will pass through the Assembly the likelihood of it being adopted depends either on the attitude of Premier Liu or if the opposition within the Manzuxiehui can be persuaded to back it wholeheartedly. :Investigation into corruption Corruption remains one of the most serious problems in the Manchurian government and was a central focus in the Progressive Alliance's election campaign. The desire to root out corruption is acutely felt amongst much of the Manchurian population and is the focus for the rise in anti-government protests and general sentiment in recent years. As the party of government the Manzuxiehui is most commonly implicated in corruption accusations and scandals, one of which almost caused former Premier Jin Pai Nai to resign in 2013. An investigation into corruption is welcomed by the vast majority of the Manchu population, but may face some resistance from the Manzuxiehui especially from law makers who have been labelled as corrupt. Its likely that the corruption investigation will be a long process and will result in scandals and resignations. However if it is watered down, sabotaged or fails to turn up substantive evidence it may produce the biggest public backlash in years and spell the end for the Manzuxiehui. *21st Manchu Central Bank set to publish 2015 economic figures by Liu Liansheng The Manchu Central Bank has today released their annual report of Manchuria's finances in preparation of the budget set to be released in March. According to Shen Xiehong, the Director of the Manchu Central Bank, Manchuria's economy grew by 3.8% on average in 2015, reaching its peak in April at 4.3% before falling to 3.2% in October. Manchuria's strong economic growth in 2015 means it was able to recover from the small recession that hit the country last year as innovative and ambitious deregulation and privatisation restored market confidence in the Manchurian economy. Despite positive signs for continued growth in Manchuria, the IMF has repeated the assertion that unless global economic growth gets back on track Manchuria's recovery may prove to be fragile in the long term. The Manchurian government however have stated they are working to grow the economy by pushing further reform and encouraging greater industrial production. Critics challenge the government's assertion that the service sector will face record growth in the next year, stating that industry is still the main backbone of Manchuria's economy, a fact that will be unlikely to change soon. Category:Manchuria Category:Media